What a deposit plan might do
Not a promise. Every path below is one possible future, built by dealing out the strategy's real backtested years in a random order, then shaving each one by the 1.2%/yr the live account actually loses to execution. The spread is the point, not the middle line.
The same average return produces every one of these outcomes. Which one you get depends on the order the good and bad years arrive — that's sequence-of-returns risk, and it's why the honest answer is a range, never a single number. Every path here includes a drawdown of 30% or more. A real account is living one right now. Past backtests are not future results; forward returns are almost certainly lower than a tech-heavy 2006–2025 sample suggests. Taxes are not modeled.
Method: 1,200 simulated futures, each dealing the strategy's 20 real backtested calendar-year returns in random order (block bootstrap), minus a 1.2%/yr execution haircut, with deposits added monthly. This preserves the real down years instead of assuming a smooth bell curve. A fixed seed keeps the picture stable between runs.